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Report to the Board: 2019 Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods

October 25, 2019

Brightly colored decorative cover of the 2019 Technical Panel reportEvery four years the Social Security Advisory Board commissions a panel of expert economists, demographers and actuaries to review the assumptions of the Social Security Trustees and the methods of the Office of the Chief Actuary used in projecting the finances of the Old Age Survivors and Disability Insurance (OASDI) trust funds. The 2019 Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods is the sixth such panel commissioned by the Board. The Panel’s report, executive summary, supplemental financial estimates, author disclosures and additional information on the Panel’s activities can be found on the Panel’s public information page.


Key Documents

Members of the Panel

Robert M. Beuerlein (Chair), Consulting actuary with RM Beuerlein Consulting and recently retired Senior Vice President and Chief Actuary of AIG Life and Retirement Companies; fellow of the Society of Actuaries, a member of the American Academy of Actuaries, and a Chartered Enterprise Risk Analyst; past president of the American Academy of Actuaries (2017) and the Society of Actuaries (2006)
Ron Gebhardtsbauer, Professor Emeritus in the Actuarial Science Program, Penn State University. Fellow of the Society of Actuaries, Member of the American Academy of Actuaries
Alexander Gelber, Associate Professor, Department of Economics and School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego
Joshua Goldstein, Chancellor’s Professor of Demography, University of California, Berkeley
Patricia L. (Tricia) Guinn, Director, Reinsurance Group of America, Inc. and Assetmark Financial Holdings, Inc.; fellow of the Society of Actuaries; member of the American Academy of Actuaries; Chartered Enterprise Risk Analyst; and previously interim chief risk officer and managing director, Risk and Financial Services, Willis Towers Watson
Kathleen Mullen, Senior Economist, RAND Corporation and Director, RAND Center for Disability Research.
Louise Sheiner, Robert S. Kerr Senior Fellow in Economic Studies, Brookings Institution, and policy director, Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy
Sita Nataraj Slavov, Professor of Public Policy and Director of the public policy Ph.D. program, Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University
Kent Smetters, Boettner Chair Professor, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, and Faculty Research Fellow, National Bureau of Economic Research
Tom Terry, CEO of the Terry Group. Fellow of the Society of Actuaries, Member of the American Academy of Actuaries, fellow of the Conference of Consulting Actuaries, Enrolled Actuary, past president of the American Academy of Actuaries (2014) and the International Actuarial Association (2017)

Information & Meeting Archive

Links to Background Documents

2019 OASDI Trustees Report Page  (2018 Edition), Office of the Chief Actuary, SSA

Congressional Budget Office Long range Social Security Projections


Meeting Information, November 16, 2018, Washington D.C.


Session 1: Presentations  by members of the Trustees’ Working Group. Ideas for inclusion on the Panel’s agenda and how the Panel;’s work can be most informative to the Trustees

Mark Warshawsky, Deputy Commissioner, Retirement and Disability Policy, Social Security Administration (SSA)

William Marton, Director of the Disability and Aging Policy Division, Department of the Health and Human Services.